Think the Mets aren’t headed for a bullpen burnout?
In 27 games, there have been 103 relief appearances.
This translates to 3.81 relief pitchers per game.
On a 7 man relief staff (which is what the team currently has), this means on any given day, a relief pitcher has a 54.4% chance of pitching.
If you pitch in 54.4% of the team games – that’s 88 games you’ll be pitching in.
The American League record for most relief appearances by a relief pitcher is 89.
Scott Rice is on pace for 102 games.
Now with roster changes, injuries, etc. – you’re not going to have a bullpen that is going to put up individual appearance numbers like this. We’ve already seen turnover happen and we’re only a month into the season.
But keep on burning out the pen, you’re going to need turnover due to ineffectiveness. You’re replacing the player with a (in theory) weaker component from the minors. Keep on burning out the pen, you’re going to need turnover due to injury from overuse.
Turn over the pen because it’s being overused and you have your major league bullpen (which was already a weakness) become a minor league bullpen at the major league level.
And what happens then? A second half collapse.
There are other ways to manage the pen to maximize results without burning out the staff.